Bayes in the Culture War: How Priors Become Prison Walls

3โ€“5 minutes

Are you rational, or merely rehearsing your tribeโ€™s catechism? Bayesโ€™ theorem insists we should all update our beliefs the same way when presented with the same evidence. Yet in todayโ€™s political divide, identical events harden opposing convictions. The problem isnโ€™t the mathโ€”itโ€™s the priors. When your starting assumptions are inherited, acculturated, or indoctrinated, no amount of โ€œevidenceโ€ will move you into enemy territory.

A Bayesian Sketch of the Divide

  • Let H be a contested claim (pick your poison: โ€œthe election was fair,โ€ โ€œimmigration helps,โ€ whatever).
  • People in Camp R and Camp B begin with different priors P_R(H) and P_B(H). Thatโ€™s acculturation if youโ€™re being polite, indoctrination if youโ€™ve run out of patience.
  • They observe evidence E (news, a court ruling, a video clip, a statistic).
  • They update:

posterior odds = prior odds ร— P(H \mid E) = \frac{P(E \mid H) P(H)}{P(E)}

Except they donโ€™t, not cleanly, because trust in sources warps the likelihoods.

Video: Jonny Thompson on Bayes’ Theorem.
I love Jonny’s content, which is why I reference it so often. He and I have such different philosophical worldviews. Vive la diffรฉrence (or diffรฉrance).

Why this locks in polarisation

1. Wildly different priors.
If Camp R starts at P_R(H)=0.8 and Camp B at P_B(H)=0.2, then even moderately pro-H evidence (say likelihood ratio LR = 3) yields:

  • R: prior odds 4:1 \rightarrow 12:1 \Rightarrow P(H \mid E)\approx 0.92
  • B: prior odds 1:4 \rightarrow 3:4 \Rightarrow P(H \mid E)\approx 0.43

Same evidence, one camp โ€œsettled,โ€ the other still unconvinced. Repeat ad infinitum, preferably on primetime.

2. Identity-weighted likelihoods.
People donโ€™t evaluate P(E \mid H); they evaluate P(E \mid H, \text{source I like}). Disconfirming evidence is down-weighted by a factor d<1. This is called โ€œbeing rationalโ€ on your own planet and โ€œmotivated reasoningโ€ on everyone elseโ€™s.

3. Different hypothesis sets.
Camps donโ€™t just disagree on P(H); they entertain different Hs. If one sideโ€™s model includes โ€œcoordinated elite malfeasanceโ€ and the otherโ€™s does not, then identical data streams update into different universes.

4. Selective exposure = selection bias.
Evidence isnโ€™t i.i.d.; itโ€™s curated by feeds, friends, and fury. You are sampling from your own posterior predictive distribution and calling it โ€œreality.โ€

5. Asymmetric loss functions.
Even if beliefs converged, choices wonโ€™t. If the social cost of dissent is high, the decision threshold moves. People report a โ€œbeliefโ€ that minimises ostracism rather than error.

6. No common knowledge, no convergence.
Aumann told us honest Bayesians with common priors and shared posteriors must agree. Remove eitherโ€”common priors or the โ€œwe both know we both saw the same thingโ€ bitโ€”and you get the modern news cycle.

โ€œAcculturationโ€ vs โ€œIndoctrinationโ€

Same mechanism, different moral valence. Priors are installed by families, schools, churches, unions, algorithms. Call it culture if you approve of the installers; call it indoctrination if you donโ€™t. The probability calculus doesnโ€™t care. Your tribal totems do.

Two quick toy moves you can use in prose

  • Likelihood hacking:
    โ€œWhen evidence arrives, the tribe doesnโ€™t deny the datum; it edits the likelihoods. โ€˜If my side did it, itโ€™s an outlier; if your side did it, itโ€™s a pattern.โ€™ This is not hypocrisy; itโ€™s a parameter update where the parameter is loyalty.โ€
  • Posterior divergence despite โ€˜factsโ€™:
    โ€œGive two citizens the same court ruling. One updates towards legitimacy because courts are reliable; the other away from legitimacy because courts are captured. The ruling is constant; the trust vector is not.โ€

If one wanted to reduce the split (perish the thought)

  • Forecast, donโ€™t opine. Run cross-camp prediction markets or calibration tournaments. Bayes behaves when you pay people for accuracy rather than performance art.
  • Adversarial collaboration. Force both sides to pre-register what evidence would move them and how much. If someoneโ€™s d for disconfirming evidence is effectively zero, youโ€™ve identified faith, not inference.
  • Reference classes, not anecdotes. Pull arguments out of the single-case trap and into base-rate land. Yes, itโ€™s boring. So is surgery, but people still do it.

The punchline

Polarisation isnโ€™t the failure of reason; itโ€™s what happens when reason is strapped to identity. Priors are social. Likelihoods are political. Posteriors are performative. You can call it acculturation if you want to feel civilised, indoctrination if you want to throw a brick, but either way youโ€™re watching Bayesโ€™ theorem run inside a culture war. The maths is sober; the humans are not.


ยซ Je pense, donc jโ€™ai raison ! ยป

3โ€“4 minutes

The Enlightenment promised a universal Reason; what we got was a carnival mirror that flatters philosophers and fools the rest of us. MacIntyre and Anscombe diagnosed the corpse with precision, but then tried to resurrect it with Aristotelian or theological magic tricks. Iโ€™m less charitable: you canโ€™t will petrol into an empty tank. In my latest essay, I put โ€˜Reasonโ€™ on the slab, call in Kahneman, Hume, Nietzsche, and others as expert witnesses, and deliver the verdict: morality is a house rule, not a cosmic law. This piece is part of a larger project that includes my Language Insufficiency Hypothesis and Against Dumocracy. The Enlightenment isnโ€™t dying โ€“ itโ€™s already dead. Weโ€™re just cataloguing the remains.

The Enlightenment was many things: a bonfire of superstition, a hymn to autonomy, a fever dream of โ€œReasonโ€ enthroned. Its philosophers fancied themselves heirs to Aristotle and midwives to a new humanity. And to be fair, they were clever enough to trick even themselves. Too clever by half.

Alasdair MacIntyre, in After Virtue, plays the role of forensic pathologist with admirable precision. He shows us how the Enlightenment dynamited the teleological scaffolding of Aristotle, then tried to keep the vocabulary of virtue, duty, and rights standing in mid-air. The result: what he calls a โ€œmoral Babel,โ€ a chorus of shrill assertions dressed up as rational law. Elizabeth Anscombe had already filed the death certificate back in 1958 with Modern Moral Philosophy, where she pointed out that our talk of โ€œmoral obligationโ€ is just a Christian relic without a deity to enforce it. And Nietzsche, that perennial party-crasher, cheerfully declared the whole project bankrupt: once the gods are dead, โ€œoughtโ€ is nothing but resentment pretending to be metaphysics.

And yet, when MacIntyre reaches the heart of the matter, he canโ€™t quite let the body stay buried. He wants to reattach a soul by importing an Aristotelian telos, even summoning a โ€œnew St Benedictโ€ to shepherd us through the ruins. It plays beautifully with those still tethered by a golden string to Aquinas and the premodern, but letโ€™s be honest: this is just hypnosis with a Latin chorus. Descartes told us je pense, donc je suis; MacIntyre updates it to je pense, donc jโ€™ai raison. The trouble is that thinking doesnโ€™t guarantee rightness any more than an empty petrol tank guarantees motion. You can will fuel into existence all you like; the car still isnโ€™t going anywhere.

The behavioral economists โ€“ Kahneman, Tversky, Ariely, Gigerenzer โ€“ have already demonstrated that human reason is less compass than carnival mirror. Jonathan Haidt has shown that our โ€œmoral reasoningโ€ usually lags behind our gut feelings like a PR department scrambling after a scandal. Meanwhile, political practice reduces โ€œjust warโ€ to a matter of who gets to publish the rule book. Progressโ„ข is declared, rights are invoked, but the verdict is always written by the most powerful litigant in the room.

So yes, MacIntyre and Anscombe diagnose the corpse with impressive clarity. But then they canโ€™t resist playing resurrectionist, insisting that if we only chant the right metaphysical formula, the Enlightenmentโ€™s heart will start beating again. My own wager is bleaker โ€“ or maybe just more honest. There is no golden thread back to Aristotle, no metaphysical petrol station in the desert. Morality is not a universal constant; itโ€™s a set of rules as contingent as the offside law. Killing becomes โ€œmurderโ€ only when the tribe โ€“ or the state โ€“ says so. โ€œLife is sacredโ€ is not a discovery but a spell, a linguistic sleight of hand that lets us kill in one context while weeping in another.

The Enlightenment wanted to enthrone Reason as our common oracle. Instead, it handed us a corpse and told us to pretend it was still breathing. My contribution is simply to keep the coronerโ€™s mask on and say: The magic tricks arenโ€™t working anymore. Stop looking for a metaphysical anchor that isnโ€™t there. If thereโ€™s to be an โ€œafter,โ€ it wonโ€™t come from another Saint Benedict. It will come from admitting that the Enlightenment died of believing its own hype โ€“ and that language itself was never built to carry the weight of gods.

Ground News

I like to stay updated on the news of the day, so I just registered for a Ground News account. Ground News is a news aggregator. They gather news and categorise it by political leaning and the publication’s record on factuality. Their claim is to reveal blind spots so help people not get caught in perspective bubbles. It also shows when a story is picked up predominantly by one side or another. I’ve seen ads for this on many channels and have for a while, so it’s likely that you have, too. This is not an ad.

This article attracted my attention, not because of the content but because of the headline. As a statistician, this bothers me. As a communicator, the damage is trebled. I don’t receive any compensation for clicking the link. I include it for reference for those who are not familiar with the service.

Image: Ground News Screengrab

Notice the choice of writing, ‘1-in-6 parents reject vaccine recommendations‘.

Two things shine through.

  1. The use of ‘reject’ โ€“ a negative verb.
  2. The use of ‘1-in-6’ โ€“ the figure accompanying the negative verb โ€“ 17%.

Statistically, this means that 5-in-6 parents follow vaccine recommendations โ€“ 83%.

This is the summary view. Scan down, and notice the Left-leaning Raw Story references a ‘staggering number’ of parents who reject vaccines. Notice also how the language softens โ€“ the claim is revised to ‘delay or reject’. Without clicking into the story, what is this breakdown? I’m not sure, but this is what sensationalism looks like to attract clicks.

Image: Ground News Summary View

Interestingly, the outlets tend to use different language and give different attention. What percentage of this is due to political bias and which is benign editorial licence is unclear.

On balance, the articles โ€“ Left, Right, and Centre โ€“ unanimously note that vaccine use is down, incidences of measles are up, RFK policies appear to be exacerbating the health management issue. The worst offenders are ‘very’ religious, white, politically conservative people. This cohort aligns with the RFK and the current administration.

The poll also found that parents who have postponed or avoided vaccinating their children tend to be white, conservative, and highly religious, and some choose to homeschool.

For this story, one of the sources was Greek and another French. Some claim to be behind a paywall, but this didn’t pose a problem for me. Perhaps they offer some complementary views.

Separately, on the right-hand side of the top image, there is a bias indicator: It shows that 57% of the reports were from Left-leaning journals, 36% Centre, leaving the remaining 7% to Right-leaning sources.

Image: Updated Bias Distribution

When I returned to write this post, I noticed that the reporting had changed as more Centre-focused reports picked up the story.

If I were to guess, this story shines a negative light on the Right, so they may just be waiting for the news cycle to pass.

In the (Right-facing) Greek story I read, the reporting wasn’t materially different to the other stories, which is to say they don’t try to render the story through rose-colour glasses.

On Predictive Text, Algebra, and the Ghost of Markov

Before I was a writer, before I was a management consultant, before I was an economist, and before I was a statistician, I was a student.

Video: Veritasium piece on Markov chains and more.

Back then, when dinosaurs roamed the chalkboards, I fell for a rather esoteric field: stochastic processes, specifically, Markov chains and Monte Carlo simulations. These werenโ€™t just idle fascinations. They were elegant, probabilistic odes to chaos, dressed up in matrix notation. I’ll not bore you with my practical use of linear algebra.

So imagine my surprise (feigned, of course) when, decades later, I find myself confronted by the same concepts under a different guiseโ€”this time in the pocket-sized daemon we all carry: predictive text.

If you’ve not watched it yet, this excellent explainer by Veritasium demystifies how Markov chains can simulate plausible language. In essence, if you’ve ever marvelled at your phone guessing the next word in your sentence, you can thank a Russian mathematician and a few assumptions about memoryless transitions.

But here’s the rub. The predictive text often gets it hilariously wrong. Start typing โ€œto be or not toโ€”โ€ and it offers you โ€œschedule a meeting.โ€ Close, but existentially off. This isnโ€™t just clunky programming; itโ€™s probabilistic dementia.

This leads me to a pet peeve: people who smugly proclaim theyโ€™ve โ€œnever used algebraโ€ since high school. I hear this a lot. It’s the battle cry of the proudly innumerate. What they mean, of course, is theyโ€™ve never recognised algebra in the wild. They think if theyโ€™re not solving for x with a number 2 pencil, it doesnโ€™t count. Meanwhile, their phone is doing a polynomial dance just to autocorrect their butchery of the English language.

Itโ€™s a classic case of not recognising the water in which weโ€™re swimming. Algebra is everywhere. Markov chains are everywhere. And Monte Carlo simulations are probably calculating your credit risk as we speak. Just because the interface is clean and the maths is hidden behind a swipeable veneer doesnโ€™t mean the complexity has vanished. Itโ€™s merely gone incognito.

As someone who has used maths across various fields โ€“ software development, data analysis, policy modelling โ€“ I can tell you that I use less of it than a physicist, but probably more than your average lifestyle coach. I say this not to flex but to point out that even minimal exposure to mathematical literacy grants one the ability to notice when the machines are quietly doing cartwheels behind the curtain.

So the next time your phone offers you a sentence completion that reads like itโ€™s been dropped on its head, spare a thought for Markov. He’s doing his best, bless him. Itโ€™s just that probability doesnโ€™t always align with meaning.

Or as the algorithms might say: โ€œTo be or not to โ€“ subscribe for updates.โ€

Rick Beato, Everything is a Remix

Oh no, not that again. As if weโ€™ve all been composing from scratch, untouched by the grubby hands of history.

Audio: NotebookLM podcast on this topic.

I’m not simping for AI, but letโ€™s have it out, shall we? Rick Beatoโ€”bless his fretboard-fingered soulโ€”says AI-generated music sucks. And sure, some of it does. But hereโ€™s the punchline: most human-made music sucks too. Always has. Always will. The fact that an algorithm can now churn out mediocrity faster than a caffeinated teenager with GarageBand doesnโ€™t make it less โ€œart.โ€ It just makes it faster.

I’m a bit chuffed that Rick’s channel removed my comment pointing to this response. I didn’t want to copy-paste this content into his comments section.

Video: Rick Beato discusses AI-generated music

The Myth of the Sacred Original

Newsflash: There is no such thing as originality. Not in art. Not in music. Not even in your favourite indie bandโ€™s tortured debut EP. Everything we call โ€œcreativeโ€ is a clever remix of something older. Bach reworked Vivaldi. Dylan borrowed from the blues. Even Bowieโ€”patron saint of artistic reinventionโ€”was a pastiche artist in a glittery jumpsuit.

What AI does is make this painfully obvious. It doesnโ€™t pretend. It doesnโ€™t get drunk in Berlin and write a concept album about urban decay to mask the fact it lifted its sound from Kraftwerk. It just remixes and reinterprets at inhuman speed, without the eyeliner.

Speed Isnโ€™t Theft, Itโ€™s Efficiency

So the AI can spit out a passable ambient track in ten seconds. Great. Thatโ€™s not cheating, itโ€™s progress. Saying โ€œit took me ten years to learn to play like thatโ€ is noble, yes, but itโ€™s also beside the point. Horses were noble too, but we built cars.

The question isnโ€™t how long did it take? but does it move you? If the answer is no, fine. Say it sucks. But donโ€™t pretend your human-shaped suffering gives your song a monopoly on meaning. Thatโ€™s just gatekeeping with a sad sax solo.

The Taste Problem, Not the Tech Problem

Letโ€™s not confuse our distaste for bland music with a distaste for AI. Most of the pop charts are already AI-adjacentโ€”click-optimised, algorithm-fed, and rigorously inoffensive. If you want soul, seek out the obscure, the imperfect, the human, yes. But donโ€™t blame the machine for learning its craft from the sludge we fed it.

AI is only as dull as the data we give it. And guess what?
We gave it Coldplay.

Whatโ€™s Actually at Stake

What rattles the cage isnโ€™t the mediocrity. Itโ€™s the mirror. AI reveals how much of our own โ€œcreativityโ€ is pattern recognition, mimicry, and cultural reinforcement. The horror isnโ€™t that AI can make music. Itโ€™s that it can make our music. And that it does so with such appalling accuracy.

It exposes the formula.
And once you see the formula, you canโ€™t unsee it.

Long Live the Derivative

So yes, some AI music sucks. But so do most open mic nights. Creativity was never about being wholly original. It was about saying somethingโ€”anythingโ€”with whatever tools you had.

If AI is just another tool, then sharpen it, wield it, and for heavenโ€™s sake, stop whining. The artist isnโ€™t dead. Heโ€™s just been asked to share the stage with a faster, tireless, genre-bending freak who doesnโ€™t need bathroom breaks.

Language and Generative AI: A Journey through Midjourney

I am not a fan of Midjourney v7. I prefer v6.1. And I want to write about the correspondence of language, per my Language Insufficiency Hypothesis.

Let’s start with the language aspect. Notice how distant the renders are from the intent of the prompt.

This is my initial prompt. I used it about a year ago to generate the cover image with v6.1, but I wanted to see how it renders in v7. Let’s take a trip all the way back to the beginning.

cinematic, tight shot, photoRealistic light and shadow, exquisite details, delicate features, emaciated sensual female vampire waif with vampire fangs, many tattoos, wearing crucifix necklace, gazes into mirror, a beam of moonlight shines on her face in dark mausoleum interior, toward camera, facing camera, black mascara, long dark purple hair , Kodak Portra 400 with a Canon EOS R5
Image: Midjourney v6.1 render set (from about a year ago)

As you can see, these renders are somewhat lacking in photorealism, but the “sensual” term in the prompt was not blocked.

Midjourney v7

Initially, I encountered a hiccup. After a couple of rejections on the grounds of morality, I removed the word ‘sensual’ and received the output. All of the output uses this prompt absent the sensual term.

As mentioned, I have generated several images (including the cover image) with this prompt, but Midjourney is inconsistent in its censorship gatekeeping.

Image: Midjourney v7 render set

Notice that 3 of the 4 renders in the v7 set don’t even have a mirror. The top right one does, but it’s not evident that she’s a vampire. In fact, I could say that any of these are vampiresses, but perhaps that’s what they want you to believe. In place of a necklace, the lower right wokan sports a cross tattoo.

Midjourney v6.1

Image: Midjourney v6.1 render set

Again, these renders don’t appear to be vampires. The one on the lower left does appear to have snake-like fangs, so I guess I’ll give partial credit.

My next attempt was interrupted by this message.

It rendered something that might violate community guidelines. The funny thing is that one can watch the image generate in process. It only takes one “offensive” image to disqualify the whole batch.

Midjourney v6

Image: Midjourney v6 render set

Yet again, not a vampire to be found. Notice the reflection in the lower left image. Perhaps vampire reflections just behave differently.

Midjourney 5.2

Image: Midjourney v5.2 render set

Midjourney v5.2 was a crapshoot. Somehow, I got vampire lips (?), a Wiccan, a decrepit Snape from Harry Potter lore, and Iron Maiden’s Eddy reading a book. It’s something. I’m sensing gender dysphoria. Dare I go back further?

Midjourney v5.1

Image: Midjourney v5.1 render set

It gets worse. No comments necessary. Let’s turn back the clocks even more.

Midjourney v5

Image: Midjourney v5 render set

To be fair, these all do have occult undertones, but they are weak on vampireness.

Midjourney v4

Image: Midjourney v4 render set

To be fair, the render quality isn’t as bad as I expected, but it still falls short. There’s further back to travel.

Midjourney v3

Image: Midjourney v3 render set

Some configuration parameters no longer exist. Still, I persist for the sake of art and science at the cost of time and ecology.

As much as I complain โ€“ and I complain a lot โ€“ this is how far we’ve come. As I recall, this is when I hopped onto the Midjourney bandwagon. There’s still more depth to plumb. I have no idea how much of the prompt is simply ignored at this point.

Midjourney v2

Image: Midjourney v2 render set

What the hell is this? ๐Ÿค”๐Ÿคฃ But I’m not done yet.

Midjourney v1

Image: Midjourney v1 render set

The damned grandpappy of them all. Apparently, colour hadn’t been invented yet. You can’t tell by these thumbnails, but the resolution on these early versions approaches that of a postage stamp.

Midjourney Niji 3

Image: Midjourney Niji 3 render set

I had forgotten about the Niji models from back in the day. There were 3 versions. I don’t recall where this slotted into the chronology. Obviously, not down here. I’ve only rendered the newest one. I think this was used primarily for anime outputs, but I might be mistaken.

Bones Content 1: Video

Video: Midjourney Render of Purported Vampiress

This is a video render of the same prompt used on this page.

Bonus Content 2: Midjourney v6.1 Content from 34 weeks ago

Same prompt.

Image: Midjourney v6.1 render set (several passes)

The upper left image reminds me of Kirsten Dunst. Again, notice the female breasts, highlighting Midjourney’s censorial schizophrenia.

Midjourney Boundaries

I promise that this will not become a hub for generative AI. Rather than return to editing, I wanted to test more of Midjourney’s boundaries.

It turns out that Midjourney is selective about the nudity it renders. I was denied a render because of cleavage, but full-on topless โ€“ no problem.

Both of these videos originate from the same source image, but they take different paths. There is no accompanying video content. The setup features three women in the frame with a mechanical arm. I didn’t prompt for it. I’m not even sure of its intent. It’s just there, shadowing the women nearest to it. I don’t recall prompting for the oversized redhead in the foreground, though I may have.

In both images, note the aliasing of the tattoos on the blonde, especially on her back. Also, notice that her right arm seems shorter than it should. Her movements are jerky, as if rendered in a video game. I’m not sure what ritual the two background characters are performing, but notice in each case the prepetition. This seems to be a general feature of generative AI. It gets itself in loops, almost autistic.

Notice a few things about the top render.

Video: Midjourney render of 3 females and a mechanical arm engaging in a ritual. (9 seconds)

The first video may represent an interrogation. The blonde woman on the left appears to be a bit disoriented, but she is visually tracking the woman on the right. She seems to be saying something. Notice when the woman on the right stands. Her right foot lands unnaturally. She rather glitches.

The camera’s push and pull, and then push, seems to be an odd directorial choice, but who am I to say?

Video: Midjourney render of 3 females and a mechanical arm engaging in a ritual. (12 seconds)

The second video may represent taunting. The woman on the left still appears to be a bit disoriented, but she checks the redhead in the foreground with a glance. Notice the rocking of the two background characters, as well as the mech arm, which sways in sync with the woman on the right. This is a repetition glitch I mentioned above.

Here, the camera seems to have a syncopated relationship with the characters’ sway.

Summary

The stationary objects are well-rendered and persistent.

Assignment

Draft a short story or flash fiction using this as an inspirational prompt. I’m trying to imagine the interactions.

  • The ginger seems catatonic or drugged. Is she a CIS-female? What’s with her getup?
  • The blonde seems only slightly less out of it. Did she arrive this way? Did they dress her? Why does she appear to still have a weapon on her back? Is it a weapon or a fetter? Why is she dressed like that? Is she a gladiatrix readying for a contest? Perhaps she’s in training. What is she saying? Who is she talking to? What is her relationship to the redhead? Are they friends or foes โ€“ or just caught up in the same web?
  • What is the woman wearing the helmet doing? She appears to have the upper hand. Is she a cyborg, or is she just wearing fancy boots? What’s with her outfit? What’s with her Tycho Brahe prosthetic nose piece?
  • What is that mechanical hand? Is it a guard? A restraint? Is it hypnotising the ginger? Both of them? Is it conducting music that’s not audible?
  • What’s it read on the back wall? The two clips don’t share the same text. Call the continuity people.

Ridley Park Propensity

frantic woman, pen and ink

As some of you know, I publish speculative fiction under the name Ridley Park. Propensity is one of several recent releases โ€“ a novella that leans philosophical, brushes up against literary fiction, and steps quietly into the margins of sci-fi.

Itโ€™s not about spaceships or superintelligence. Itโ€™s about modulation.

About peace engineered through neurochemical compliance.

About the slow horror of obedience without belief, and the behavioural architecture that lets us think weโ€™re still in control.

The ideas explored include:

  • Free will as illusion
  • Peace as compliance
  • Drift, echo, and the limits of modulation
  • Obedience without belief
  • Institutional horror and soft dystopia
  • Consent and behavioural control
  • Narrative as residue
  • Collapse by calibration

Though filed under speculative fiction, Propensity [US] is best read as a literary artefact โ€“ anti-sci-fi, in a sense. Thereโ€™s no fetishisation of technology or progress. Just modulation, consequence, and the absence of noise.

This PDF contains selected visual excerpts from the physical book to accompany the free audiobook edition. For readers and listeners alike, it offers a glimpse into Ridley Parkโ€™s world โ€“ a quietly dystopian, clinically unsettling, and depressingly plausible one.

  • Title page
  • Copyrights page
  • Table of Contents
  • Chapter 10: Memorandum. This chapter is read in the audiobook. The inclusion here is for visualisation as it is rendered in the form of a memo.
  • Chapter 26: Simulacra. This chapter is read in the audiobook. The inclusion here is for visualisation as it is rendered in the format of a screenplay.
  • Chapter 28: Standard Test: This chapter is read in the audiobook. The inclusion here is for visualisation as it is rendered in the format of a standardised test.
  • Chapter 34: Calendar. This chapter is read in the audiobook. The inclusion here is for visualisation as it is rendered in the format of a calendar.
  • Chapter 39: Carnage. This chapter is read in the audiobook. The inclusion here is for visualisation as it is rendered in the form of a Dr Suess-type poem.
  • Chapter 41: Leviathan. This chapter is excerpted in the audiobook. The inclusion here is for visualisation as it is rendered with an image of the cover of Hobbes’ Leviathan and redacted page content.
  • Chapter 42: Ashes to Ashes. This chapter is read in the audiobook. The inclusion here is for visualisation as it is rendered in the form of text art.
  • Chapter 43: Unknown. A description of this chapter is read in the audiobook. The inclusion here is for visualisation as it is rendered in the form of an ink sketch.
  • Chapter 44: Vestige. A description of this chapter is read in the audiobook. The inclusion here is for visualisation as it is rendered in the form of text art.

For more information about Ridley Park’s Propensity, visit the website. I’ll be sharing content related to Propensity and my other publications. I’ll cross-post here when the material has a philosophical bent, which it almost always does.

The Emperor’s New Models: Box, Lawson, and the Death of Truth

We live in an age intoxicated by models: climate models, economic models, epidemiological models, cosmological modelsโ€”each one an exquisite confection of assumptions draped in a lab coat and paraded as gospel. Yet if you trace the bloodline of model-building back through the annals of intellectual history, you encounter two figures who coldly remind us of the scam: George Box and Hilary Lawson.

Box: The Gentle Assassin of Certainty

George Box, the celebrated statistician, is often credited with the aphorism: “All models are wrong, but some are useful.” However, Box himself never uttered this precise phrase. What he did say, in his 1976 paper Science and Statistics, was:

The “some are useful” flourish was added later by a public desperate to sweeten the bitter pill. Nevertheless, Box deserves credit for the lethal insight: no model, however elegant, perfectly captures reality. They are provisional guesses, finger-paintings smeared across the rough surface of the unknown.

Audio: NotebookLM podcast on this topic.

Lawson: The Arsonist Who Burned the Map

Hilary Lawson, contemporary philosopher and author of Closure: A Story of Everything, drags Box’s modest scepticism into full-blown philosophical insurrection. In a recent lecture, Lawson declared:

Where Box warns us the emperor’s clothes don’t fit, Lawson points out that the emperor himself is a paper doll. Either way, we dress our ignorance in equations and hope no one notices the draft.

Lawson’s view is grim but clarifying: models are not mere approximations of some Platonic truth. They are closuresโ€”temporary, pragmatic structures we erect to intervene effectively in a world we will never fully comprehend. Reality, in Lawson’s framing, is an โ€œopennessโ€: endlessly unfolding, resistant to total capture.

The Case of the Celestial Spheres

Take Aristotle’s model of celestial spheres. Ludicrous? Yes. Obsolete? Absolutely. Yet for centuries, it allowed navigators to chart courses, astrologers to cast horoscopes, and priests to intimidate peasantsโ€”all without the slightest whiff of heliocentrism. A model does not need to be right; it merely needs to be operational.

Our modern theoriesโ€”Big Bang cosmology, dark matter, and quantum gravityโ€”may well be tomorrow’s celestial spheres: charming relics of ignorance that nonetheless built bridges, cured diseases, and sold mobile phones.

Summary Table: Lawson’s View on Models and Truth

Conclusion

Box taught us to distrust the fit of our models; Lawson reminds us there is no true body underneath them. If truth is a ghost, then our models are ghost storiesโ€”and some ghost stories, it turns out, are very good at getting us through the night.

We are left not with certainty, but with craftsmanship: the endless, imperfect art of refining our closures, knowing full well they are lies that work. Better lies. Usable lies. And perhaps, in a world without final answers, that is the most honest position of all.

Questioning Traditional Families

I neither champion nor condemn traditionโ€”whether itโ€™s marriage, family, or whatever dusty relic society is currently parading around like a prize marrow at a village fรชte.

Audio: NotebookLM podcast on traditional families.

In a candid group conversation recently, I met โ€œJennyโ€, who declared she would have enjoyed her childhood much more had her father not โ€œruined everythingโ€ simply by existing. โ€œMarieโ€ countered that it was her mother who had been the wrecker-in-chief. Then โ€œLuluโ€ breezed in, claiming, โ€œWe had a perfect family โ€” we practically raised ourselves.โ€

Now, hereโ€™s where it gets delicious:

Each of these women, bright-eyed defenders of “traditional marriage” and “traditional family” (cue the brass band), had themselves ticked every box on the Modern Chaos Bingo Card: children out of wedlock? Check. Divorces? Check. Performative, cold-marriage pantomimes? Absolutelyโ€”and scene.
Their definition of โ€œtraditional marriageโ€ is the vintage model: one cis-male, one cis-female, Dad brings home the bacon, Mum weeps quietly into the washing-up. Standard.

Letโ€™s meet the players properly:

Jenny sprang from a union of two serial divorcรฉes, each dragging along the tattered remnants of previous families. She was herself a “love child,” born out of wedlock and “forcing” another reluctant stroll down the aisle. Her father? A man of singular achievements: he paid the bills and terrorised the household. Jenny now pays a therapist to untangle the psychological wreckage.

Marie, the second of two daughters, was the product of a more textbook โ€œtraditional familyโ€โ€”if by textbook you mean a Victorian novel where everyone is miserable but keeps a stiff upper lip about it. Her mother didnโ€™t want children but acquiesced to her husbandโ€™s demands (standard operating procedure at the time). Marieโ€™s childhood was a kingdom where Daddy was a demigod and Mummy was the green-eyed witch guarding the gates of hell.

Lulu grew up in a household so “traditional” that it might have been painted by Hogarth: an underemployed, mostly useless father and a mother stretched thinner than the patience of a British Rail commuter. Despiteโ€”or because ofโ€”the chaos, Lulu claims it was โ€œperfect,โ€ presumably redefining the word in a way the Oxford English Dictionary would find hysterical. She, too, had a child out of wedlock, with the explicit goal of keeping feckless men at bay.

And yetโ€”and yetโ€”all three women cling, white-knuckled, to the fantasy of the โ€œtraditional family.โ€ They did not achieve stability. Their families of origin were temples of dysfunction. But somehow, the “traditional family” remains the sacred cow, lovingly polished and paraded on Sundays.

Why?

Because what theyโ€™re chasing isnโ€™t “tradition” at all โ€” itโ€™s stability, that glittering chimera. Itโ€™s nostalgia for a stability they never actually experienced. A mirage constructed from second-hand dreams, glossy 1950s propaganda, and whatever leftover fairy tales their therapists hadn’t yet charged them ยฃ150 an hour to dismantle.

Interestingly, none of them cared two figs about gay marriage, though opinions about gay parenting varied wildlyโ€”a kettle of fish Iโ€™ll leave splashing outside this piece.

Which brings us back to the central conundrum:

If lived experience tells you that โ€œtraditional familyโ€ equals trauma, neglect, and thinly-veiled loathing, why in the name of all that’s rational would you still yearn for it?

Societal pressure, perhaps. Local customs. Generational rot. The relentless cultural drumbeat that insists that marriage (preferably heterosexual and miserable) is the cornerstone of civilisation.

Still, itโ€™s telling that Jenny and Marie were both advised by therapists to cut ties with their toxic familiesโ€”yet in the same breath urged to create sturdy nuclear families for their own children. It was as if summoning a functional household from the smoking ruins of dysfunction were a simple matter of willpower and a properly ironed apron.

Meanwhile, Luluโ€”therapy-free and stubbornly independentโ€”declares that raising oneself in a dysfunctional mess is not only survivable but positively idyllic. One can only assume her standards of “perfect” are charmingly flexible.

As the title suggests, this piece questions traditional families. I offer no solutionsโ€”only a raised eyebrow and a sharper question:

What is the appeal of clinging to a fantasy so thoroughly at odds with reality?
Your thoughts, dear reader? I’d love to hear your defences, your protests, or your own tales from the trenches.